Lazio's Inconsistency And Defensive Woes Threaten Champions League Hopes

Last Sunday, Lazio settled for a draw against Napoli, boosting their tally to 35 points—level with Juventus following their home victory over Inzaghi’s Nerazzurri. Champions League qualification remains uncertain, hinging on the upcoming results from Lazio and key rivals such as Juventus, Fiorentina, Milan, and Bologna (with Milan and Bologna yet to play one match). While the first four months of the season saw Lazio charging ahead, the following two months have been marked by inconsistency—a snapshot of the team’s performance two-thirds through the campaign.

According to La Gazzetta dello Sport, Baroni’s side has notably lost the impressive momentum they once enjoyed since mid-December. On matchday 15, Lazio was averaging 2.06 points per game; in the next 10 matches, that average fell to 1.5. While the initial run would have secured Champions League qualification, the current rate casts doubt on a top-four finish. The overall average at matchday 25 stands at a respectable 1.84 points per game, yet it no longer offers the same assurance.

A key issue for Lazio is their defense. Over 25 matchdays, they have conceded 34 goals—an average of 1.36 per game—placing them 11th in Serie A in this regard, while their attack ranks third. Among the teams targeting for Champions League spots, Lazio’s defensive record is among the worst, as opponents have found the backline too porous. The six goals conceded at home against Inter have been particularly costly; even excluding those, Baroni’s team still features the most vulnerable defense in the top eight. What’s more alarming is that despite facing few shots, Lazio concedes on the very first clear chances their opponents create. Additionally, on the offensive front, the team now faces the challenge of replacing Castellanos, who is sidelined for at least a month following tests that confirmed a moderate adductor injury on his left thigh. While several options exist to fill this void, their effectiveness remains to be seen.